I am a postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zürich in the International Relations and Data Science group led by Livia Schubiger. I completed my PhD in Economics at Ca' Foscari University of Venice in February 2026.
My research lies at the intersection of political economy, causal inference, and machine learning. I use computational methods to investigate political accountability, conflict dynamics, and the behavior of organized crime. When not running regressions, I can occasionally be found with a guitar in hand.
Email: adriano.amati@gess.ethz.ch
Research
Three questions run through my work.
- Why do states look away from violence they could stop? Governments can benefit from private violence without organizing it, simply by enforcing the law selectively. My job market paper develops this idea, institutional forbearance, and tests it in the West Bank.
- How does organized crime use the legal economy? With co-authors I build dynamic corporate ownership networks around firms confiscated from the mafia in Italy and use graph neural networks to detect and date infiltration.
- How do politicians respond to a new audience? Using the Seventeenth Amendment, which moved U.S. senators to direct election, we study what legislators change when voters rather than legislatures choose them.
Methods. Difference-in-differences and event studies, instrumental variables, spatial and network econometrics, text-as-data and large language models, graph neural networks, deep learning, satellite imagery, computer vision.
Job Market Paper
When Governments Look Away: Extremist Violence in the West Bank
Why do governments fail to restrain non-state violence when they can? Existing accounts emphasize weak capacity, direct state organization of violence, or strategic relationships with armed groups. They say less about decentralized violence enabled through enforcement choices. I develop a theory of institutional forbearance: governments may relax enforcement when violence advances goals they value, and anticipated leniency weakens deterrence. I test the argument in the West Bank, where radical settlers pursue territorial objectives partly shared by members of the Israeli government. Trump's 2016 election sharply reduced U.S. pressure on Israel, lowering external costs of forbearance. Using difference-in-differences, I compare changes across locations differing in pre-election suitability for settlement expansion. Settler violence against Palestinians rises disproportionately in high-suitability locations, increasing sharply in January 2018 and remaining elevated through 2023. Institutional forbearance thus enables non-state violence through selective enforcement without requiring centralized direction or an explicit agreement.
Working Papers
The Audience and the Agenda: Electoral Accountability and the Public Record
Under review SSRN
Abstract
When representation shifts from indirect to direct election, politicians may change not only where they stand but what they choose to make visible. We study this distinction at the Seventeenth Amendment, which transferred the election of U.S. senators from state legislatures to voters. The reform created the strongest incentives for senators whose inherited partisan bases were weakest statewide. Using floor speeches, we show that these senators broadened their public agendas once direct election became credible, relying less on established specialties and speaking across a wider range of issues. Their agendas also became more similar to those of House members, chiefly because specialization declined rather than because senators adopted House priorities. Roll-call positions show no corresponding response, and we find no strong evidence of a response in amendment activity. Direct electoral accountability reshaped senators most on the margin they controlled most freely: the public agenda they chose to build.
Mafia Connections: Infiltration in Corporate Ownership
Working paper
Abstract
Learned representations have transformed the measurement of unstructured data in economics. We extend it to relational data, showing that Temporal Graph Networks encode economically meaningful behavior in dynamic corporate ownership networks. Using a high-resolution Italian ownership graph anchored on 5,700 judicially confiscated firms, we train a TGN to produce time-varying firm embeddings and validate them along three dimensions: they forecast confiscation out of sample up to four years ahead, well beyond firm financials and conventional network statistics; their geometry places firms confiscated only later closer to firms already confiscated at the time of measurement; and they respond coherently to local changes in ownership. We summarize this geometry with an Infiltration Proximity Index and use it to date firms' transitions into a high-risk regime in a staggered difference-in-differences design. Around the dated transition, firms display sharp scale expansion, rising liabilities and receivables, cost reallocation, and persistent illiquidity, with only temporary profit gains, patterns consistent with firms operating as conduits for financial flows rather than as profit maximizers.
The Social Multiplier of Leisure: Peer Effects in Museum Attendance
Working paper University of Bath Working Paper Series
Abstract
This paper studies peer effects in leisure consumption using a longitudinal dataset of daily museum visits in Northern Italy. Leveraging administrative records on museum cardholders, we construct a dynamic social network from repeated co-visits and estimate endogenous peer effects on museum attendance and membership renewal. Identification relies on quasi-experimental variation induced by age-based membership discounts, which shift peers' behavior through exogenous price changes. We document sizable social multipliers: increases in peers' visits and renewal decisions significantly raise individual attendance and repurchase. Mechanism tests indicate that the dominant channel is a preference for shared experiences, with a more limited role for informational spillovers. Overall, the results show how social networks amplify cultural consumption in settings where participation is intrinsically social.
Work in Progress
Post-OCR Correction of the U.S. Congressional Record with Fine-Tuned Language Models
Ideal Point Estimation with Graph Neural Networks
Production Networks and Lobbying
Teaching
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Causal Machine Learning — lecturer, PhD course, Ca' Foscari University of Venice
Course material (notebooks) on GitHub - Economics of Risk and Agent Behavior — guest lecturer, master's level, Ca' Foscari University of Venice
- Microeconomics — lecturer and teaching assistant, bachelor's level, Ca' Foscari University of Venice
- Macroeconomics — teaching assistant, bachelor's level, Ca' Foscari University of Venice
- Probability Theory and Statistics — teaching assistant, PhD level, Ca' Foscari University of Venice
- Supervision — master's thesis in economics, University of Zurich (2026, ongoing)
CV
Download CV (PDF)- Postdoctoral Researcher, ETH Zürich (2026–present)
- PhD in Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice (2022–2026)
Visiting researcher, ETH Zürich Center for Law and Economics (2024–2025) - M.A. Economics, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin (2019–2020)
- M.Sc. International Trade, Finance and Development, Barcelona GSE (2018–2019)
- B.Sc. Economics and Business Economics, Maastricht University (2014–2017)
Contact
International Relations and Data Science Group, ETH Zürich, Switzerland